NASA's Schoolboy Error

By Mark Steer

Widespread reports that a schoolboy had embarrassed NASA by calculating the probability of an asteroid strike to be a hundred times more likely that the space giants had predicted are wrong, according to NASA.

Nico Marquardt, a 13-year-old schoolboy, had claimed the chances of the Apophis asteroid smashing into the Earth were 1 in 450 - rather different to the figure of 1 in 45,000 produced by NASA and ESA. The asteroid is due to pass so close to Earth in 2029 and 2036 that it will be nearer than geostationary satellites.

When the story broke, it was claimed that both NASA and the ESA had verified the figures and had advised we all start packing our bags and try to hitch a lift to Mars. These claims, however, seem to have been erroneous. Officials from both NASA and ESA have denied having verified the numbers and are sticking to their original estimates.

An ESA spokesman in Germany told the Register, "A small boy did do these calculations, but he made a mistake... NASA's figures are correct."

Claims that the spokesman had earlier gone round to Marquardt's house and given him a Chinese burn and told him to "keep his spoddy little nose out of our business" are as yet unverified.

Marquardt's sums included the possibility of the asteroid crashing into a satellite in some way that seemed not to have been covered by NASA, increasing the chances that Apophis would be deflected Earthwards. But NASA said: "[The asteroid will pass] within the distance of Earth's geosynchronous satellites. However, because Apophis will pass interior to the positions of these satellites at closest approach, in a plane inclined at 40 degrees to the Earth's equator and passing outside the equatorial geosynchronous zone when crossing the equatorial plane, it does not threaten the satellites in that heavily populated region."

To which Marquardt didn't reply, "Shut up, you loser."

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